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By internalizing investment, advisory, and administrative functions, family offices reduce transaction and agency costs while leveraging regulatory carveouts. […] Family offices create positive externalities: They professionalize wealth management, enable patient and long-term capital deployment, facilitate philanthropy, and reduce systemic transaction costs. […] While exemptions and private structuring allow families to efficiently manage their wealth in relative secrecy, they also reduce transparency, concentrate financial power, and create potential gaps in systemic oversight.
Fazit: Gute Überblicksstudie zu Family Offices
An Index of Commodity Futures Returns Since 1871
Leveraging a unique hand-collected dataset, we present annual returns and cumulative returns to an index of commodity futures. […] Like stocks, commodity futures have a positive risk premium. Returns to commodity futures deviate from stocks in ways that provide periodic outperformance, likely due to different fundamental drivers of returns. While volatile over shorter investment horizons, the index performance has shown consistent performance over long horizons.
Fazit: Auch Rohstoff-Futures hatten historisch eine positive Risikoprämie
Multiples for Valuation: Go High, Go Low, Ignore the Middle
Multiples are more highly correlated with forward stock returns in sample, and provide better forecasts of stock returns out of sample, when they are in the top or the bottom quartile of a sorting by multiples than when they are in the two middle quartiles. […] Although the jury may be out on the ability of multiples to forecast stock returns, the predominant view (…) is that stock returns are more predictable in the long term than in the short term.
Fazit: Hohe und niedrige Multiples sind aussagekräftiger als mittlere
Mired in Losses: How the Disposition Effect Depresses Purchase Behavior
The disposition effect is a selling phenomenon. We show that it also affects buying. Investors who are reluctant to realize losers, will also be reluctant to make new purchases. […] Investors who hold proportionately more portfolio losses are less likely to log onto their brokerage app. And (…) they are less likely to buy the recommended stocks. Not buying when holding losses is more pronounced for investors who have less cash in their accounts.
Fazit: Es wirkt sich auch auf das Kaufverhalten aus, wenn Verluste nicht realisiert werden
Who Profits from Prediction Markets? Execution, not Information
Using 222 million prediction market trades where terminal payoffs are directly observable, we decompose trader returns into a directional component and an execution component. […] The execution component, not the directional component, determines which trader types earn positive returns. […] Accurate forecasters arrive after execution-skilled traders have already moved prices toward terminal values.
Fazit: Privatanleger sollten diese Märkte meiden